This error (mathematically, answer (b) cannot be more likely than answer (a)) is an example of the " conjunction fallacy" Tversky and Kahneman argued that respondents chose (b) because it seemed more "representative" or typical of persons who might fit the description of Linda. They were then asked whether they thought Linda was more likely to be (a) a "bank teller" or (b) a "bank teller and active in the feminist movement." A majority chose answer (b). Participants were given a description of "Linda" that suggests Linda might well be a feminist (e.g., she is said to be concerned about discrimination and social justice issues). The "Linda Problem" illustrates the representativeness heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983 ). Heuristics are simple for the brain to compute but sometimes introduce "severe and systematic errors." For example, the representativeness heuristic is defined as "The tendency to judge the frequency or likelihood" of an occurrence by the extent of which the event "resembles the typical case." Heuristics involve mental shortcuts which provide swift estimates about the possibility of uncertain occurrences. Tversky and Kahneman explained human differences in judgment and decision-making in terms of heuristics. Tversky, Kahneman, and colleagues demonstrated several replicable ways in which human judgments and decisions differ from rational choice theory. The notion of cognitive biases was introduced by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972 and grew out of their experience of people's innumeracy, or inability to reason intuitively with the greater orders of magnitude. The study of cognitive biases has practical implications for areas including clinical judgment, entrepreneurship, finance, and management. Ī continually evolving list of cognitive biases has been identified over the last six decades of research on human judgment and decision-making in cognitive science, social psychology, and behavioral economics. Other cognitive biases are a "by-product" of human processing limitations, resulting from a lack of appropriate mental mechanisms ( bounded rationality), the impact of an individual's constitution and biological state (see embodied cognition), or simply from a limited capacity for information processing. Furthermore, allowing cognitive biases enables faster decisions which can be desirable when timeliness is more valuable than accuracy, as illustrated in heuristics. They may lead to more effective actions in a given context. While cognitive biases may initially appear to be negative, some are adaptive. Thus, cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, and irrationality. An individual's construction of reality, not the objective input, may dictate their behavior in the world. Individuals create their own "subjective reality" from their perception of the input. A cognitive bias is a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |